Hindsight bias: definition, examples and practical tips
Posted: Sun Dec 22, 2024 10:43 am
There are very many people who can explain in retrospect why certain events took place, but very few who can predict in advance that they will take place. Looking back, everything is very clear. Why do we suddenly find unpredictable events predictable after they happen? And how do you apply this hindsight bias in practice as an entrepreneur?
What is the hindsight bias?
The hindsight bias is our tendency to look back at an thailand telephone number unpredictable event and then think it was easy to predict (Fischhoff, 1975).
You simply cannot know the outcome of an unpredictable event before it has occurred. The insights come only after the event has occurred, but the hindsight bias gives you the idea that you can judge things well, that you have a talent for it. You overestimate yourself. As a result, it has a negative effect on future decisions we make. You no longer look realistically at the possible consequences of your decisions because you dangerously overestimate your talent for predicting consequences. As a result, you may be taking excessive risks (Cherry, 2020).
How does hindsight bias arise?
As you receive new information about something that happened, you look at it through a different lens. As a result, your thought or opinion about this event changes (Samson, 2017). The new information overwrites the old information. When you ask someone for a prediction before and after the event, you may get a different answer, with the latter answer leaning more toward what really happened. You remember your prediction differently because you prefer, what you know afterwards, which is true.
What is the hindsight bias?
The hindsight bias is our tendency to look back at an thailand telephone number unpredictable event and then think it was easy to predict (Fischhoff, 1975).
You simply cannot know the outcome of an unpredictable event before it has occurred. The insights come only after the event has occurred, but the hindsight bias gives you the idea that you can judge things well, that you have a talent for it. You overestimate yourself. As a result, it has a negative effect on future decisions we make. You no longer look realistically at the possible consequences of your decisions because you dangerously overestimate your talent for predicting consequences. As a result, you may be taking excessive risks (Cherry, 2020).
How does hindsight bias arise?
As you receive new information about something that happened, you look at it through a different lens. As a result, your thought or opinion about this event changes (Samson, 2017). The new information overwrites the old information. When you ask someone for a prediction before and after the event, you may get a different answer, with the latter answer leaning more toward what really happened. You remember your prediction differently because you prefer, what you know afterwards, which is true.