It's all about the Zangezur Corridor

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However, Armenia is already being “pumped up” with weapons. In 2024, an agreement was reached to supply Armenia with French Caesar self-propelled artillery units. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry assessed this deal as a “provocation”: supposedly, France is only increasing tensions in the region and preventing the stabilization of the situation. Aliyev supported this position, stating that such “militarization” of Armenia will inevitably lead to an escalation. As for the CSTO , whose membership Armenia has effectively suspended, an appeal to this bloc also seems unlikely.

Analysts remind us that Armenia has already lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh and has also ceded a number of disputed settlements on the border.

"If Azerbaijan decides to conduct a combined arms operation using aviation, artillery, missile systems, mobile infantry and drones, then the territory of Armenia could be occupied almost entirely. In this case, a bc data singapore flow of refugees is expected, the majority of whom will head to Russia, primarily to the Krasnodar Territory, where one of the largest Armenian diasporas lives," the note says.
Are we really facing a new Caucasian war? What will be its consequences for the region and how will it affect Russia?


Sergei Markov , director of the Institute of Political Studies , believes that a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is highly likely.

— Azerbaijan realized that a window of opportunity had opened for it. It returned Nagorno-Karabakh and part of the disputed border territories. Azerbaijan has a strong army and a powerful ally in the region — Turkey , whose influence has grown significantly since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. But Armenia , on the contrary, is in a very bad way. Firstly, it has fallen out with Russia, its main ally in the region. Secondly, after the overthrow of Assad , its ally Iran , which wants to weaken Turkey’s influence, has weakened. Plus, a quarter of Iran’s population are ethnic Azerbaijanis, and they don’t like Armenia. So Iran has probably also dropped out of the list of Armenian allies. Hypothetically, Armenia could be supported by France , which has a large Armenian diaspora that can and does influence President Macron. But Macron will help diplomatically and, possibly, with weapons supplies. He will definitely not send an army to distant Armenia: the majority of voters will not understand him. So Azerbaijan has every chance to get everything it wants from Armenia, Sergei Alexandrovich explained .