Alexander Olshansky: First, a few comments about the future itself.

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zakiyatasnim
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Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:55 am

Alexander Olshansky: First, a few comments about the future itself.

Post by zakiyatasnim »

It seems to me that this is a common feature for all forecasts. When we try to forecast something very short-term, it seems to us that we completely control our lives, and we know exactly what will happen tomorrow. When we try to forecast our lives a year, two or three years ahead, the forecast turns out to be extremely inaccurate. When we try to forecast our lives 10-15-20 years ahead, then, strangely enough, we can achieve some accuracy.

Even though the future looked very different in 1980, if you look at the predictions of famous people of that time, you will understand that many things were foreseen. Including the creation of the world information network, no matter what it was called. It was predicted back in the 70s.

The second point about the future concerns entrepreneurship and lifestyle. This is best described by Nassim Taleb in The Black Swan.

But in general, it is such a well-structured philosophical system that kuwait number data looks something like this:

- How does a human differ from all other animals? Because a human has a brain. What is a brain? The brain is a certain device that can build models of the surrounding world. Why does it build these models of the surrounding world? To predict the future. That is, my brain says that if I wave my hand now, the cup will fall and most likely break and the tea will definitely spill out of it. And even fairly developed animals do not have this quality. Perhaps only a monkey can predict that tea will spill.

Man has defeated all animals today. Man is the victorious species in the evolutionary process. At least today man has absolutely subjugated literally the entire biosphere of the planet. How did this happen? It turned out that this device, which can model the external environment and predict the future even for relatively short periods of time, gives such a huge evolutionary advantage that people have displaced, so to speak, all other animals.

Well, the same thing actually happens with our everyday life. That is, if we consider entrepreneurship as some kind of evolutionary competition, then this device that allows you to predict the future gives such a big advantage that, in general, it does not matter how much bigger your muscles are. A man is weaker than a tiger and smaller than an elephant, runs slower than a cheetah or does not fly, but, nevertheless, he beats everyone. It is exactly the same in entrepreneurship. This ability to “foresee ahead” is so important and gives such big bonuses that everything else fades into the background. You may be unlucky, you may not have the initial capital, in the end, you may not have any management skills, but if you have this vision, then you will definitely be among the winners.
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