► Subsequently, due to the existence of the overdraft effect, the cumulative multiplier will gradually drop below . During the period of policy implementation, the cumulative fiscal multiplier will generally decline gradually. As policies are withdrawn and overdraft effects become apparent, cumulative fiscal expenditures will no longer change, while the cumulative retail sales will further decline, causing the cumulative multiplier to fall faster. Based on experience, the cumulative multiplier usually falls below in the fourth year after the policy is implemented. And this decline in the cumulative multiplier will be reflected regardless of whether the policy is ivory coast phone number list still being implemented. For example, in , the policy of bringing home appliances to the countryside was still being implemented, but our estimated cumulative multiplier had dropped to ..
► The duration of the policy also seems to have an impact on the longterm multiplier. the longerterm multiplier may be closer to the average consumption propensity. We have observed that if a policy is implemented for a long time, the overdraft effect will gradually be reflected during the implementation period. There will be no residual overdraft impact after the policy is withdrawn, and the final cumulative multiplier will be higher. If the policy is implemented for a short period of time, the overdraft effect will quickly appear after the policy is withdrawn, and the cumulative multiplier may drop significantly. We believe that a possible explanation for this phenomenon is that if the subsidy policy is implemented for a long time, it means that the fiscal scale of the subsidy will be larger and consumption expectations will be more stable. This policy measure will be transformed from a shortterm pulse stimulus to a regular fiscal subsidy, which is more like increasing the disposable income of residents by an equal amount. The multiplier on consumption in this category will gradually approach the average consumption propensity, and will not quickly fall back to a lower level due to the overdraft effect.